The National Weather Service’s (NWS) latest winter outlook shows a 75% chance of La Niña December through February for the Oregon Coast and the rest of the state.
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, commonly referred to as ENSO, is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) and the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is a defining model for weather forecasters.
This would be the third consecutive year for our weather to be influenced by El Niño. Weather experts said that influence is directly related to climate change.
The NWS outlook suggests that the La Niña impact will likely continue through mid-winter.
NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks:
- Wetter than Normal Fall 2022
- Equal chances of wetter, drier or near normal precipitation December, January and February
- Greater chance for slightly cooler temperatures than normal December, January and February
The NWS outline shows equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean, which would favor wetter and cooler than normal conditions for the Pacific Northwest this winter.
The NWS November outlook favors a greater chance of above normal precipitation with equal chances for above, near or below normal temperatures. The outlook for December through February shows a greater chance for above normal precipitation and a greater chance of below normal temperatures.
The Oregon Drought Monitor shows moderate drought along the Oregon Coastline with abnormally dry to moderate drought inland and extreme drought in eastern and south east Oregon. The NWS long-range drought forecast shows conditions improving or even ending across much of Oregon and Washington through December.
Forecasters said it’s too early to tell if Oregon Coast cities, such as Lincoln City and Newport will see snowfall this winter, but they said it’s always best to be prepared.
Three weather elements, cold offshore flows, an air mass in place and moisture from the pacific, rarely come together often, according to the NWS, but when that does happen it increases the chance of snow at lower elevations in Lincoln County and across the state.
The NWS said under the La Niña, winter temperatures in the lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest can range from the mid 40s to low 50s-day side and from the 20s to 30s overnight.
Jeremy C. Ruark may be reached at [email protected]